Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.528642 0.613415 0.704656 0.809831 0.927387 1.054393 1.201640
2025-03-30 0.384339 0.490380 0.613094 0.764393 0.944635 1.151170 1.404334
2025-04-06 0.290320 0.406805 0.551417 0.741342 0.981141 1.270642 1.643028
2025-04-13 0.216325 0.334355 0.491845 0.712110 1.006313 1.379429 1.881209
2025-04-20 0.170162 0.289874 0.461209 0.715489 1.073139 1.547212 2.210199
2025-04-27 0.130623 0.246708 0.425410 0.706984 1.123660 1.699946 2.536195
2025-05-04 0.103018 0.215840 0.402422 0.713713 1.196687 1.891071 2.932625
2025-05-11 0.080326 0.187606 0.378522 0.715677 1.263369 2.080398 3.344541
2025-05-18 0.057760 0.152981 0.337066 0.683038 1.273321 2.188591 3.650788
2025-05-25 0.039926 0.121637 0.294400 0.640950 1.262551 2.264331 3.915897
2025-06-01 0.029600 0.103088 0.271907 0.630934 1.303750 2.424647 4.322493
2025-06-08 0.021626 0.086886 0.250248 0.618672 1.339409 2.579167 4.732162
2025-06-15 0.017022 0.078328 0.244415 0.639151 1.440929 2.858581 5.374176
2025-06-22 0.011443 0.063225 0.218692 0.613432 1.453190 2.988363 5.783738
2025-06-29 0.007971 0.052906 0.201808 0.603801 1.495630 3.175191 6.303778
2025-07-06 0.005299 0.043302 0.183444 0.586900 1.521247 3.334368 6.789025
2025-07-13 0.003875 0.038124 0.176453 0.596389 1.603231 3.604171 7.485268
2025-07-20 0.002663 0.032513 0.165874 0.594523 1.660590 3.832511 8.123477
2025-07-27 0.001913 0.028750 0.160256 0.604983 1.746979 4.123951 8.894458
2025-08-03 0.001324 0.025079 0.153392 0.610561 1.822981 4.400969 9.655968
2025-08-10 0.000753 0.019843 0.137289 0.584980 1.821839 4.523009 10.136325
2025-08-17 0.000378 0.015056 0.119871 0.550339 1.793226 4.585660 10.507436
2025-08-24 0.000216 0.012504 0.111633 0.543503 1.833760 4.796122 11.175363